Issue #69
Last Update October 31, 2010
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International WCDM 2009 - Pandemic Planning by David Katz June 29, 2009 This year's World Conference on Disaster Management, held in Toronto, highlighted the current concerns of business continuity, disaster recovery and crisis management professionals. A four day conference and exposition, it presented tutorials, panel discussions and lectures by prominent people in the field, designed to enhance professional knowledge, share experience and convey the latest information in areas of interest to the attendees. In addition to the many sessions on business continuity best practices, disaster recovery techniques and crisis communications which were applicable to planning for and dealing with disruptive events regardless of kind, there were sessions devoted to the three topics most on people's minds: pandemics, ecological and weather related disasters, and terrorist activity.
The pandemic-related sessions were particularly well-attended. The World Health Organization, based on the geographical spread of the H1N1 strain of the swine flu, had elevated the threat level to 6, a full-fledged pandemic, a few weeks prior to the conference. There was a half-day seminar on pandemic planning, as well as at least seven lecture sessions devoted to the topic.
The influenza virus is easily mutated. Some mutations create changes to the viral coat which make it less recognizable to our immune system. Flu comes in two forms: seasonal, and pandemic. The difference is that the seasonal influenza is a strain that has been encountered recently, and against which we have some immunity, but which alters slightly (usually every six months, giving us A and B strains), thus generating semi-annual peaks of infection. A pandemic flu is one which is a new strain against which we have little or no immunity, or one whose last appearance was so long ago that only older members of population carry any immunity, and which has shown itself to have two characteristics: the ability to cause disease in humans, and the ability to be spread from human to human.
According to Dr. Allison McGeer of Mt. Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, season flu is so common that we seem to pay little attention to these types of flu, beyond warning children and the elderly to get flu shots. Nevertheless, large numbers of people are infected annually and millions of work-days are lost. When a major change occurs, resulting in a new flu strain, it is usually the result if swapping of genetic material between different avian or animal strains. Modern transportation and global commerce have increased the speed with which a novel flu strain can be propagated around the world, but according to Dr. McGeer, border restrictions on movement are all but useless in stopping the spread of the disease.
Three methods are available to cope with the pandemic: social measures (public health measures, including school closures and banning public gatherings, hand sanitizing, and face masks), antiviral drugs, which can mitigate the effects of the flu (and prevent it, in some cases), and vaccines which take at least six months to prepare.
So far, swine flu has proven to be a mild form of influenza, with few deaths compared to the number of people infected. The history of past pandemics, including the 1918 influenza epidemic (also an H1N1 strain), shows that the first wave can be mild, but subsequent waves may turn virulent. Time will tell whether this is the situation we are facing currently.
In terms of planning for pandemic impact, pandemics differ from other crises in that up to 30 per cent of the work force may be unavailable for considerable periods of time, and not just locally but nationally and internationally. For businesses, governments and individuals, this will result in disruptions in food supply, transportation, and perhaps even communications, water supply and energy supply. Medical care facilities will be overstressed. Disruptions can be expected across all sectors of the economy.
Governments and businesses are doing intensive pandemic planning, exploring scenarios and developing mitigation procedures. Individuals need to plan, also.
New York Stringer is published by NYStringer.com. For all communications, contact David Katz, Editor and Publisher, at david@nystringer.com