Issue #43
Last Update December 24, 2005
Commentary The war is on, and no one believes that we will lose, or even that the war will be too lengthy. The military successes achieved to date are a tribute to the quality of training our troops receive; after all, we are fielding green troops who have never seen combat, against blooded Iraqi veterans, at least in their elite units, and our guys (and gals) are performing admirably. Given our technological edge, ultimate success was never in doubt, although early reports have Iraqis showing stiffer resistance than was hoped for by the White House. As we have been saying all along, though, the real dangers are post-war.
The much-discussed risk of increased terrorism is not a serious consequence of the Iraq war; terrorists of the Al Qaeda type don't need much of excuse to kill innocent civilians, and would find such an excuse to attack America if they have a mind to even in the absence of our invasion of Iraq. The real post-war dangers are three: breakdown of the rule of law, Administration hubris, and unraveling of our international cooperative network. These three issues are closely related, and all relate to the policies and actions of this present Administration.
Our Wild West mythos, which President Bush seems to take as a model for attitude, is a tale of gradually increasing civilization: the law of the gun being replaced by posses and lynchings, and that in turn giving way to laws, police and courts. Internationally, we have for generations been trying to move from the law of the gun to laws, courts and police; the current Administration has put at risk a century of painfully-won progress. Our invasion of Iraq has shattered the notion that the invaders are, by definition, outlaws. We will be hard pressed to claim aggression the next time a regime we don’t like crosses a border on the pretext of “preemptive self-defense”.
Having been successful in Iraq, this Administration is all too likely to move against the next country on their enemies list (assuming that that country does not possess nuclear weapons, although even that risk may be dared). Whether out of conviction or a desire to keep the electorate in a state of permanent war so they cannot focus on the looting of our economy, the erosion of our rights and liberties and the hollowing of the American middle class, Administration hubris is more than likely to take our nation into further military adventures.
Our international cooperative network consists of our military alliances, our international economic and trade structures, and the good will built up between nations over the years. By expressing disdain in word and deed for these structures and the nations that support them, we have unraveled a portion of a vital safety net. While our military might is overwhelming, we are also the largest debtor nation in the world. Our economy is enormously dependent on the inflow of capital to offset our atrocious balance of payments; our industries and farms are dependent on foreign buyers for their profits; the maintenance of our environment is dependent on the efforts and goodwill of our neighbors, which now include the entire globe. Our fight against terrorist organizations has had whatever success it has had because other nations have been wholehearted supportive in intercepting terrorist communications, tracing terrorist movements and arresting supporters of terrorist groups. This unprecedented cooperation is now in jeopardy.
The Bush administration has shown no awareness of these three dangers; indeed, they have been courting these risks since they took office. We can only hope that the damage they inflict can be overcome by the next Administration.
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