Issue #37
February 28, 2005
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Commentary 2003 is over. Let's hope 2004 is better. What can we expect in the coming year? Several predictions:
1. President Bush will claim credit for a booming economy. The market may, perhaps, be up, and corporate profits may improve, but unemployment will continue to be the dirty little secret of the economy.
2. Iraq will continue to be a bleeding sore. Americans and Iraqis will continue to die, while the tribal and religious differences that make Iraq three countries rather than one will prevent the benefit that was supposed to flow from the overthrow of the Ba'ath regime: the creation of a democratic, free-market Moslem state in the Middle East.
3. Our toys will continue to proliferate. Electronics will continue to get smaller and cheaper to buy; cars will continue to get bigger and more expensive to run. Milage regulations will become a joke as all cars are redefined as trucks.
4. Democrats will continue to savage each other right up to the Democratic Convention, given the Republicans plenty of ammunition to use in the election. Their basic message, that the Bush Administration has destroyed the economy, ruined foreign relations, and killed American soldiers unnecessarily, all to enrich his circle of friends, will not be heard, or, if heard, not believed by the white, male voters that think Bush is just like them. Maybe Bush is.
5. Republicans will continue their assault on the Constitution, and especially on the right to fair and open trials, all in the name of "the war on terrism". To paraphrase what was said in Viet Nam, "we had to destroy the Constitution to save it." The Constitutional amendment to forbid anyone who can't pronounce "terrorism" or "nuclear" from dealing with either of those issues will not pass.
Dark as these predictions are, the American people are always capable of surprises. Though subject to periods of narrow-thinking and hysteria, they usually manage to get things right in the end. 2004 might just turn out better than we expect, and if not, there's always 2005.
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